Price Speculation

Aha…now I get it!!

I think you missed, that every listing of coins on gemini must be approved by the regulators.

In the case of ZEC and Gemini the “The New York State Department of Financial Service” approved it. But i have no clue about american regulators and maybe other departments can cancel it.

But look for yourself: https://www.dfs.ny.gov/about/dfs_about.htm

And here the tweet https://twitter.com/zcashco/status/996036332312023041

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Yup, that’s what we are talking about. With that introduction it opens the doors potentially for institutional investors to more easily include ZEC with the overall portfolio. The investors in question are large institutions like pension plans, fund managers, etc. (people managing large portfolios for many other people that are hands-off)

The thought I am bringing up is that in the bigger scheme of things…a single state (even NY) is a small player vs. the federal government (namely the IRS and the SEC) and those are the ones concerned about “hidden/concealed” accounts. I think the privacy of transactions aren’t much of a concern (except for law enforcement) but the ability to hide balances in shielded addresses might be.

I know, this is maybe a depressive post,

but i cant imagine, that real institutional investors will ever be invest in basic cryptocurrencies. This kind of guys like pension funds or normal funds invest only in things, which are giving constant returns like shares dividends or bonds etc and this things must be at least predictable and secure. Image, a pension fund would invest all the money from the people in something speculative and lose the money. it would be total crazy.

This is all a crypto social media myth with this “institutional investors in crypto”…
The only “institution”, who will ever invest in cryptos are maybe the profit seeking hedgefonds.

Edit: Maybe some years in the future there is the possibility that maybe some of them are investing in Staking tokens, which is at least similar to dividends.

And at least if there are not real regulations in crypto no one of this guys is investing. They are all need legal certainty.

Heh…do not despair! You are largely correct but there generally is some small discretionary percentage available in the funds. Even a small percent of institutional investment into crypto would be a big deal.
Also, the “semi-involved” mutual funds can also be included here.

Crypto is still a VERY small fish in a big pond.

ah thx good to know, so i was right, that maybe some others can cancel the approval from the ny state… typical SEC… :slight_smile:

But i also think (like you), that the privacy of transactions shouldnt be a problem for them, its like fiat pay with cash…

While I understand this sentiment don’t forget that in the last couple of years there was north of 10 trillion dollars in negative yielding assets! Who would possibly have considered that realistic even a short time ago. My point being is that things/perceptions change quite quickly and with the World awash in debt - throwing some money into crypto even for a pension fund with no hope of matching their unfunded liabilities (which is basically everyone in the developed world) is actually probably a gamble worth taking. With the market cap so small (relative to other asset classes) even incremental buying has the potential to push prices dramatically higher.

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i am not that desperate, maybe it came over wrong :slight_smile:
(because for the typical crypto social media guy it would be a depressive post, "what? of course pension funds will invest trillions in crypto…its FUD… )

i am total aware that crypto is very very small in comparison to our financial world, years to grow…

Thx for your thoughts.

Hi,

thx. i like your answer, could be possible. i hope you are right :slight_smile:

Isnt the basic idea of investing cryptocurrency is to gain profit. Its like trading stock (buy low sell big) but the huge difference with stocks is that the value of it is correlated with significance of the company and revenue. For cryptocurrency the value depends on how much money is pumped in. The biggest question i have is how can a bank differ from cryptocurrency if you intend them to just safeguard your money? Imo bank is much safer but without good investment in the long run it is bad for you economically because while the bank is benefiting from your money you are gonna suffer from inflation since the interest the bank gives is quite insignificant.

If you are a big investor, wouldnt you just risk on buying stock than risking it on cryptocurrency because of its volatility. I forgot to mention that the price can be manipulated easily by whales.

This is just my opinion. Pls correct me if my statements are wrong.

“Big investors” are also concerned with preserving wealth over long time frames. Here it could be argued that crypto could be treated as an uncorrelated asset and a hedge against the collapse of the financial system. Gold normally plays this role but there is some argument to be made for a digital equivalent as it is held outside of the financial system, is highly mobile (as in not constrained by borders) and is trustless. I in no way think a rush of institutional investors is guaranteed but I think the risk/reward sets up pretty nicely when you combine this hedging aspect to the almost guaranteed reaching for more speculative assets as nominal yields on bonds seem constrained long term due to stunted growth caused by the epic debt burden.

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Regarding the institutional use of zcash, isn’t Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act of some interest, at least for US institutions?

Nope. Not in any particular way beyond what it already does before crypto.

No. It’s no different than the US dollar. Its purpose is to be spent and used as a stable store of value, unit of account, and medium of exchange. That’s what a currency is.

One does not invest in currencies. Currencies are not investments. Currencies can be traded. Their relative value to other currencies speculated on. But that’s effectively it. It is only speculation. One can come up with all sorts of justifications for why a country’s currency is actually an investment based on all the economic activity and growth in that country etc but in the end its’s all still just speculation.

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Oh boy…
It’s very different from the US Dollar (physical) and US Dollar (digital)
People absolutely do invest in currencies: currency arbitrage

I tried typing out a simple explanation why, but it’s just too big of a topic. I will just recommend you go look into “asset classes” (which physical currency is one example of) and how they differ from each other. Crypto is an asset class all on it’s own.

The St. Louis Federal Reserve recently published a report that included some detail on this…
https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2018/01/10/a-short-introduction-to-the-world-of-cryptocurrencies/

change in time

Does not exist in efficient markets, only inefficient markets. A good example is the crypto price premium that built in south korea earlier this year. Most were unable to take advantage of it due to needing to be a south korean resident to even use their exchanges. It only existed because of an inefficient global market

Only inefficient markets actually exist. Everything else is nothing but theory in a classroom. As long as humans run the economy, you can’t ignore human behavior in any market (even communism). Therefore there will always be nothing but inefficient markets…and therefore arbitrage.
(at least until our machine overlords come out of hiding and take over)

It’s never actually a question on IF there is manipulation but more like WHO and to what extent.

Regardless, the point was that crypto currency is not physical currency and it is not digital currency. It has its own asset class, function, and rules.

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Usd is coming

There is no such thing as efficient market and it will probably never exist. A commodity will only have zero differentiation when it is consentrated to a single point or a small number of large firms. I dont want to live in a dystopia where the prices are dictated by a single entity. That is why a market is good because of its flaws.

Yeah, saw that coming when they eliminated the non-verified account trading. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Poloniex do the same in the next 6 months.