Price Speculation

General
3773

quick snippet and very important and often neglected by most beginners in trading, is understanding the probabilities of winning and losing streaks .

lets take for example a trader who has a 5% edge on the market , which will render him having a success rate of 55% and failure rate of 45% .
it is a decent edge of a successful trader , and if his risk/reward is 1:1 ratio , he will end up wining on the long run .

but in a 1000 trades what is the probability of him having 6 losing trades in a raw ?

surprise to many , the answer is 100%.
more over he will have 60% chance of getting 8 losing trades in a row . and 17% chance of getting 10 losing trades in a row .

but why would we want to know that ?
the answer is , to prepare proper money management and avoid the risk of ruin .

lets say he starts with 100k USD investment, and risking 10% on each trade .
we know for a fact he will certainly get 6 losing trades in a row . its just math . we just don’t know when . it can be from day one trading or any other day in between . we are just sure it will happen.

assuming the streak starts from day one . 100k becomes 90k after first trade .
90k becomes 81k , after second .
then 72.9 then 65k then 58.5k then 52.61k .

so we are certain that he will lose almost 50% of his money at any given time if he is risking 10% on his trades. Which will make him obliged to make a 100% profit on whatever remaining investments he has just to break even to the point he started trading .

and to make matters worse he has 60% chance of losing 8 in a row which will leave him at 42.6 k .
and 17% chance of losing 10 in a row turning his 100k investment to mere 34.5k . almost 70% loss , that requires him to make almost 300% profit on that remaining money just to break even and go to the point he started !

this is an undisputed proof that not only trading skills are important to succeed in trading " and trust me 5% edge is hard to get " .

I hope this post was some how informative to anyone .

3774

now to which post do you replay …a little bit confused now XD …

anything is possible with the right mind set and tons of fiat …

3775

There is a flaw in you argument. It seems that you are saying that the person loses the 10% on each trade. Are you assuming that the person invests the whole amount of funds and gets stopped out at exactly 10% loss? That example is not too valuable. What if the person cuts their loss to a max of 2% per trade? And on the other side sells with a 5% gain?

3776

I appreciate your reply Daniel .
there is no flaw in the post in its math or conclusion .
the point of the post is show that the edge alone is not the only factor in trading , and it demonstrates that risk/reward ( which is assumed on the post 1:1 ) and the amount being risked in trade ( the assumed 10%)
is as important as trading skills . and ignoring them and focusing only on the edge will certainly lead to the risk of ruin .

what you said actually emphasis my point . which is the need to have proper money management ( the risk taken ) and to have better risk/reward .

there is no contradiction here .

3777

About the Germany post… Never mind its fine lol.

There is a lot of green on coin market cap but they are a lot lower percentages compared to yesterday. It is good to see the market recover some. Even if we dip in the red some its still a good recovery from the 200 buck price point. That was a good opportunity to buy!.. that I missed…

1 Like
3778

Ok. Well your assumption is that a person would lose 10% on each trade they do consecutively. This rarely matches human behaviour. People are generally emotional in their trading and rarely have such rigged or fixed loss thresholds(or gain thresholds for that matter)

3779

I have seen before my eye beginner losing 80% in three trades . and other 100% in 6 trades .
97% of traders lose . that’s a well known fact

what I said was an example . to explain the risk of consecutive loss ( losing streak ) and how any beginner can still lose even if he has an edge .

please correct the “example” in the way you see it more correct that reflects this idea .

1 Like
3780

i can just confirm that i saw this as well in my neighborhood …just happy it isnt my case

3781

hey all just in case you missed it
few more news like this and we could see and brakeout

2 Likes
3782

what is going on???

Flypool was at 310 Avg.3d a couple of hours ago, and Naopool at approx. 55 avg. 3d

image
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3783

Thats what ive been asking myself for awhile now… flypools pool hashrate has been the highest ive ever seen it lately…

3784

yes since a long time now, but were are all the other amount of blocks which were found by flypool until now?

3785

hmmm that is a good question… I know my payouts from flypool have decreased quite a bit but i know price of zcash also influences that as well…

3786

miningpoolhub is more than nanopool 62 blocks

3787

I was just looking through the last blocks captured and found that someone was pointing 38Mh/s at the pool. Somebody knows something that we don’t. Most miners generally jump ship when a coin drops to where mining is not profitable.

My thought is that whoever is accumulating ZEC knows that the there is going to be a price spike in the near future. Flypool is also the hottest pool to mine on at the moment.

It also could be that someone is purchasing big blocks of time on Nicehash and pointing them at the pool.

A price increase between now and the end of June could be what’s fueling this.

3788

judging by the numbers it almost seems that flypool has more than 50% of the total hasrate
if its the case its creating a dangerous situation for Zcash

Edit: yeah flypool has more than 50% of hasrate 301Mh/s of total 518 MH/s this isnt good unplaned chain splitt can occur.
also its giving flypool the possibility to negotiate some “special treatment” under the threat of the split

3789

Excuse me if this is a “noob” question but why did that create a dangerous situation? Is it bad for one pool to have most of the hash rate?

3790

they didnt created it but miners did by not splitting the hashrate on other pools … by heaving more than 50% of the total hashrate they can also force a chain splitt if they want to after chain splitt the correct chain needs to be determined other pools/miners mining the wrong chain will lose mined zcash…this happend on BTG in the begining supernova had 80% of the total hasrate that resulted into unplanned chain splitt after determining the correct chain (in most cases it the one with the biggest hasrate) 2 days of mining on other pools turned to nothing since the rewards came from wrong chains arent accepted
coins mined before the chain splitt should be save
BTW: the reason why it took 2 days was that supernova didnt show (and stil isnt showing) the correct pool hasrate so nobody knew what really happend

3791

712.25 Mh/s current network hashrate. Up 30+% day over day
Where the hell did this come from??? It’s never been this high. I don’t track the ethereum network… has it dropped significantly?

3792

here are the sources

i checking the global hasrate on

from where did you get the 712Mh/s?

and the flaypool hasrate from their dashboard since i checked it during my post it already dropped a little bit to 275MH/s

and no ETH hasrate did not drop maybee some miners get their hands on the new GPUs who knows ??? but if you aim towards suspicion about letting ASICs in the game i have to disappoint you the hashrate would spike like hell if this would be the case…but yeah back to the topic of price speculation

Edit: i deleted the pictures i think they are obsolete since the link is there as well